Mathias Løvik
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mathias Løvik's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-7.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.8M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1118 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1371
- Opponent strength
- 1289
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €7.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +50% (IQR +16% to +108%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1118 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | LB | 14 | 646 | 21% | 0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 1289 | 1368 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | RM | 9 | 472 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1505 | 1374 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | LB | 6 | 86 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1556 | 1342 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Molde Fotballklubb | 6 | 570 | 0 | 1 | 1378 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Ngoy Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 21 | €3.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Wallace Oliveira Eredivisie · 2015 | 21 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Matt Miazga Eredivisie · 2017 | 22 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Lyanco Serie A · 2019 | 22 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Gerzino Nyamsi Ligue 1 · 2021 | 24 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Angelo Preciado Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Issa Kaboré Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 20 | €3.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Emanuel Mammana Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2026 | Parma | Trabzonspor | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 8 Jan 2025 | Molde FK | Parma | €3.8M | €5.0M |
| 11 Jan 2022 | Molde FK II | Molde FK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Molde FK Youth | Molde FK II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.