Nathan Ngoy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nathan Ngoy's performance-implied value at EUR 5.0M-17.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.8M-36.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.2M-37.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €29.5M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2404 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1547
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.2M – €37.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR +15% to +71%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2404 | 79% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1501 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 6 | 357 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1378 | 1317 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 15 | 1182 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1387 | 1334 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 4 | 305 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1283 | 1381 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 11 | 613 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1334 | 1248 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 8 | 610 | 1 | 0 | 1503 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Belgium | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youcef Atal Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Stefan de Vrij Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €27.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Logan Costa Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Roger Ibañez Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Melvin Bard Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €9.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Perr Schuurs Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Sepp van den Berg Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Micky van de Ven Bundesliga · 2023 | 22 | €30.0M | €50.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | Standard Liège | Lille | €3.0M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Standard U21 | Standard Liège | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Standard U18 | Standard U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Anderlecht Yth. | Standard U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.