Jacob Ondrejka
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jacob Ondrejka's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-6.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-6.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-5.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (776 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 41.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.8M vs market €5.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 776 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1374
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €5.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 34 pts; changed club; league level up (+80 Elo); relative output down 49% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -41% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 776 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | LW | 16 | 776 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1484 | 1374 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 22 | 1517 | 56% | 7 | 5 | 0.71 | 0.46 | 1364 | 1442 | 0.63 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | LW | 12 | 416 | 12% | 5 | 0 | 1.08 | 0.97 | 1525 | 1342 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 14 | 696 | 26% | 5 | 2 | 0.91 | 0.45 | 1345 | 1492 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Volkswagen Supercup | Royal Antwerp FC | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1302 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Royal Antwerp FC | 2 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1440 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ishak Belfodil Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Amin Sarr Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Lorenzo Melgarejo Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Emmanuel Rivière Premier League · 2015 | 25 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ryder Matos Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €2.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Gaëtan Laborde Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €4.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Ola John Bundesliga · 2014 | 22 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Patrick Wimmer Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2025 | Royal Antwerp | Parma | €6.8M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Elfsborg | Royal Antwerp | €1.5M | €2.5M |
| 3 Jan 2020 | Landskrona | Elfsborg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Mar 2019 | BoIS U19 | Landskrona | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.