Jota Silva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jota Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-11.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-8.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.5M-10.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (586 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 70.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.5M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 586 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.92
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1356
- Opponent strength
- 1207
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.5M – €10.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-217 Elo); league level down (-315 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -18% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 586 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LW | 18 | 575 | 19% | 5 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.51 | 1207 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | RW | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1583 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | LW | 31 | 840 | 25% | 3 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.53 | 1568 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RW | 33 | 2792 | 91% | 11 | 6 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 1378 | 1397 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RW | 30 | 1607 | 53% | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 1386 | 1387 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 235 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1206 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 2 | 136 | 1 | 0 | 1235 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 4 | 207 | 0 | 2 | 1317 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trezeguet Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Henry Onyekuru Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €7.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Aleksandar Prijovic Super League 1 · 2017 | 27 | €3.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Kady Borges Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Cherif Ndiaye Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €2.2M | €5.0M | rose |
| Jan Kuchta Premier Liga · 2022 | 25 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Vakoun Bayo Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €3.2M | €2.8M | flat |
| Adnan Januzaj Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €6.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Besiktas | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 12 Sept 2025 | Nott'm Forest | Besiktas | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Aug 2024 | Vit. Guimarães | Nott'm Forest | €7.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Casa Pia | Vit. Guimarães | €190k | €750k |
| 27 Jan 2021 | Leixões | Casa Pia | Unknown | €225k |
| 7 Jul 2020 | Espinho | Leixões | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sousense | Espinho | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | P. Ferreira U19 | Sousense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sousense Y19 | P. Ferreira U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sousense Sub-17 | Sousense Y19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sousense Sub-15 | Sousense Sub-17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sousense Form. | Sousense Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.