Maestro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maestro's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.6M-10.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-12.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.50x the positional average in the league (1425 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.5M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 14% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1425 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1291
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 14%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €12.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 41 pts; changed club; team strength up (+189 Elo); relative output up 107% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +13% (IQR -20% to +91%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1425 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | DM | 21 | 1425 | 47% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 1291 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | DM | 33 | 2839 | 88% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1289 | 1040 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | DM | 13 | 1124 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1314 | 1250 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Angola | 3 | 175 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bah Superliga · 2021 | 24 | €4.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Anis Ben Slimane Superliga · 2023 | 22 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Evander Superliga · 2023 | 25 | €9.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Berat Özdemir Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Philippe Rommens Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Ergys Kaçe Super League 1 · 2016 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Oliver Abildgaard Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mike Tresor Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | Adana Demirspor | Alanyaspor | €1.0M | €2.5M |
| 8 Feb 2024 | Benfica B | Adana Demirspor | €500k | €750k |
| 21 Jul 2022 | Estrela Amadora | Benfica B | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | AFA | Estrela Amadora | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.