Rodrigo Gomes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rodrigo Gomes's performance-implied value at EUR 7.2M-17.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.6M-23.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.6M-19.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (958 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.4M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 12% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 958 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1425
- Opponent strength
- 1530
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 12%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.6M – €19.2M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-77 Elo); role change LM -> RM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -47% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 958 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RM | 22 | 958 | 28% | 3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 1530 | 1425 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LM | 25 | 799 | 23% | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 1581 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | RM | 30 | 2448 | 80% | 7 | 7 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 1393 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RW | 15 | 325 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 1409 | 1557 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | LM | 12 | 745 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1393 | 1514 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RW | 4 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1371 | 1493 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 45 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 179 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 5 | 184 | 0 | 0 | 1503 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 6 | 421 | 0 | 1 | 1542 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Garner Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €14.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Will Hughes Premier League · 2018 | 23 | €10.0M | €14.5M | rose |
| Lewis O'Brien Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Danilo Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €28.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Alex Pritchard Premier League · 2018 | 25 | €10.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Ibrahima Diallo Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €10.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Sean Longstaff Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €17.5M | €13.0M | fell |
| Jayden Bogle Premier League · 2021 | 21 | €7.0M | €3.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Braga | Wolves | €15.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Estoril | Braga | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 8 Aug 2023 | Braga | Estoril | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Braga B | Braga | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Braga U23 | Braga B | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Braga U17 | Braga U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Palmeiras U17 | Braga U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Braga U15 | Palmeiras U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Palmeiras U15 | Braga U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | SC Braga Youth | Palmeiras U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Vilaverdense F | SC Braga Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.