Jayden Bogle
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jayden Bogle's performance-implied value at EUR 9.0M-26.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.2M-18.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.9M-28.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (2805 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.2M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2805 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1604
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.9M – €28.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -52% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | RM | 34 | 2805 | 82% | 1 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 1604 | 1521 | 1.30 |
| 2023/24 | Sheffield United | Premier League | RM | 34 | 2793 | 82% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.25 | 1606 | 1269 | 1.14 |
| 2020/21 | Sheffield United | Premier League | RM | 16 | 1108 | 32% | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 1552 | 1390 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 4 | 253 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 4 | 341 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergi Darder Laliga · 2019 | 26 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Andreas Pereira Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Pablo Fornals Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €22.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Philip Billing Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Youri Tielemans Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €38.0M | rose |
| Harrison Reed Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €18.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Asier Illarramendi Laliga · 2017 | 27 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Manu Trigueros Laliga · 2018 | 27 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2024 | Sheff Utd | Leeds | €6.0M | €3.8M |
| 7 Sept 2020 | Derby | Sheff Utd | €3.9M | €6.3M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Derby U18 | Derby | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Derby Youth | Derby U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jan 2016 | Swindon Yth. | Derby Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.