James Garner
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates James Garner's performance-implied value at EUR 25.9M-39.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 32.7M-64.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 28.3M-51.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.45x the positional average in the league (3414 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €46.8M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3414 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1556
- Opponent strength
- 1602
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €28.3M – €51.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 53 pts; relative output up 108% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -17% to +61%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Everton FC | Premier League | DM | 38 | 3414 | 100% | 2 | 7 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 1602 | 1556 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Everton FC | Premier League | DM | 21 | 1595 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1571 | 1567 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Everton FC | Premier League | CM | 37 | 3005 | 88% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1574 | 1514 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Everton FC | Premier League | DM | 16 | 796 | 23% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1558 | 1475 | 1.23 |
| 2019/20 | Manchester United | Premier League | CM | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1369 | 1720 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | DM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1720 | 1573 | 1.22 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 358 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 4 | 283 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Gallagher Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €50.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Alex Iwobi Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €28.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| John McGinn Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €30.0M | €27.0M | flat |
| James Ward-Prowse Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €14.5M | €32.0M | rose |
| Mathias Jensen Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €22.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Kevin De Bruyne Bundesliga · 2015 | 24 | €45.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré Premier League · 2018 | 25 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €15.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2022 | Man Utd | Everton | €10.4M | €7.0M |
| 31 May 2022 | Nott'm Forest | Man Utd | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 22 Aug 2021 | Man Utd | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | Nott'm Forest | Man Utd | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jan 2021 | Man Utd | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 29 Jan 2021 | Watford | Man Utd | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 18 Sept 2020 | Man Utd | Watford | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Man Utd U23 | Man Utd | Unknown | €2.7M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Man Utd U18 | Man Utd U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Man Utd Youth | Man Utd U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.