Leon Avdullahu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leon Avdullahu's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-16.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.0M-43.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.3M-48.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.39x the positional average in the league (2838 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €34.3M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2838 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1508
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.3M – €48.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +27% (IQR -7% to +82%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | DM | 33 | 2838 | 93% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1485 | 1508 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manu Koné Bundesliga · 2023 | 22 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Lucas Torreira Serie A · 2017 | 21 | €9.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Isco Laliga · 2013 | 21 | €25.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Stanislav Lobotka Laliga · 2018 | 24 | €15.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Boubacar Kamara Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €25.0M | €38.0M | rose |
| Ismaël Bennacer Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €17.5M | €33.0M | rose |
| Jucilei Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €11.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Mauro Arambarri Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Basel | Hoffenheim | €8.0M | €10.0M |
| 21 Jul 2023 | FC Basel U21 | Basel | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Basel U18 | FC Basel U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Basel U16 | FC Basel U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Basel Yth. | FC Basel U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.