Noah Saviolo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Saviolo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-3.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.2M-18.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.3M-19.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1961 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €13.0M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 23% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1961 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1310
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 23%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.3M – €19.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -53% to +84%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | LW | 30 | 1961 | 64% | 2 | 5 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 1310 | 1361 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Edwards Liga Portugal · 2021 | 23 | €10.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Milot Rashica Eredivisie · 2018 | 22 | €7.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Yusuf Erdoğan Super Lig · 2016 | 24 | €5.3M | €1.8M | fell |
| Aminu Umar Super Lig · 2017 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Taylor Booth Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Moses Simon Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 23 | €6.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Ezequiel Ponce Premier Liga · 2020 | 23 | €3.2M | €5.0M | rose |
| Edmílson Junior Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Vit. Guimarães | Trabzonspor | €8.5M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Guimarães B | Vit. Guimarães | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Vitória SC U19 | Guimarães B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 24 Aug 2022 | LOSC Lille U19 | Vitória SC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jul 2021 | Anderlecht U18 | LOSC Lille U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.