Ibrahim Olawoyin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ibrahim Olawoyin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.59x the positional average in the league (2041 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 16.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €738k vs market €2.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2041 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 17 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €925k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; relative output down 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -50% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CM | 28 | 2041 | 67% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1271 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CM | 32 | 2720 | 84% | 6 | 7 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 1299 | 1228 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CM | 36 | 3017 | 88% | 8 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.35 | 1304 | 1219 | 0.45 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Dario Saric Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Stelios Kitsiou Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €1.0M | €550k | fell |
| Joe Newell Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 29 | €800k | €850k | flat |
| Ayo Simon Okosun Superliga · 2021 | 28 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Magnus Lekven Superliga · 2016 | 28 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Danijel Miskic Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Charilaos Charisis Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jan 2023 | A. Keciörengücü | C. Rizespor | €245k | €500k |
| 16 Aug 2021 | Rangers | A. Keciörengücü | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Abia Warriors | Rangers | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Abia Comets FC | Abia Warriors | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.