Héliton
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Héliton's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €541k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2871 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €355k – €920k
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+80 Elo); relative output down 61% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -52% to +8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Göztepe | Super Lig | CB | 32 | 2871 | 94% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1267 | 1281 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Göztepe | Super Lig | CB | 34 | 2926 | 90% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1304 | 1201 | 0.39 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Konstantinos Giannoulis Super League 1 · 2018 | 31 | €750k | €325k | fell |
| Caner Osmanpaşa Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Anthony Jung Superliga · 2021 | 30 | €800k | €1.5M | rose |
| Jores Okore Superliga · 2020 | 28 | €725k | €2.0M | rose |
| Jakub Brabec Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Lewis Stevenson Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 31 | €550k | €350k | fell |
| Andy Webster Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 31 | €1.5M | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Göztepe | Without Club | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 11 Jan 2024 | CSKA 1948 | Göztepe | €125k | €800k |
| 4 Jul 2022 | SC Covilhã | CSKA 1948 | Free / loan | €275k |
| 9 Jul 2021 | ABC FC | SC Covilhã | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Nov 2020 | Santo André | ABC FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Nov 2019 | Figueirense FC | Santo André | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 5 Jul 2019 | Santo André | Figueirense FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.