Matthew Hoppe
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matthew Hoppe's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (1224 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €569k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1224 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1242
- Opponent strength
- 1256
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €442k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -28% to +26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1224 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | ST | 19 | 1224 | 62% | 4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 1256 | 1242 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | ST | 3 | 74 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 1346 | 1062 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 7 | 356 | 12% | 1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.61 | 1320 | 1237 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | ST | 5 | 128 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 1680 | 1378 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | ST | 22 | 1310 | 43% | 6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.68 | 1549 | 1303 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 3 | 237 | 4 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 2 | 41 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 113 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Furdjel Narsingh Eredivisie · 2015 | 27 | €650k | €450k | fell |
| Kwasi Wriedt Eredivisie · 2021 | 27 | €800k | €750k | flat |
| Diego Valencia Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Mohamed Konaté Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €600k | €2.0M | rose |
| Nicolai Brock-Madsen Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Bashkim Kadrii Superliga · 2018 | 27 | €500k | €650k | rose |
| Denilho Cleonise Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €550k | €400k | fell |
| Mykola Gayduchyk Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €400k | €500k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | Middlesbrough | Sönderjyske | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 Dec 2023 | SJ Earthquakes | Middlesbrough | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Aug 2023 | Middlesbrough | SJ Earthquakes | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Hibernian FC | Middlesbrough | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Middlesbrough | Hibernian FC | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 10 Aug 2022 | RCD Mallorca | Middlesbrough | €3.0M | €1.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | FC Schalke 04 | RCD Mallorca | €3.5M | €4.5M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Schalke 04 II | FC Schalke 04 | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Schalke 04 U19 | Schalke 04 II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Barca Academy | Schalke 04 U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.