Danylo Varakuta
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Danylo Varakuta's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €660k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2520 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1186
- Opponent strength
- 1188
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €491k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -13% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | Premier Liga | GK | 28 | 2520 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1188 | 1186 | 0.25 |
| 2023/24 | Chornomorets Odesa | Premier Liga | GK | 24 | 2160 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1284 | 1113 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Chornomorets Odesa | Premier Liga | GK | 2 | 121 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1292 | 1188 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | Chornomorets Odesa | Premier Liga | GK | 2 | 180 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1372 | 1156 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Chornomorets Odesa | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | Chornomorets Odesa | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Hemming Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Will Dennis Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Liam Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Dimitar Mitov Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Shamal George Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €325k | €250k | fell |
| Jeppe Höjbjerg Superliga · 2019 | 24 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Christos Mandas Super League 1 · 2023 | 22 | €1.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Jacob Rinne Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €650k | €800k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sept 2024 | Chornomorets | Metalist 1925 | Free / loan | €400k |
| 15 Aug 2020 | Chornomorets-2 | Chornomorets | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Jul 2019 | Chornomorets II | Chornomorets-2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Chornomor. U19 | Chornomorets II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2017 | C. Odessa U17 | Chornomor. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2017 | DYuSSh-11 | C. Odessa U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.