João Mendes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates João Mendes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-2.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2441 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1321
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €2.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 56% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -20% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | LB | 29 | 2441 | 80% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1321 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | LB | 32 | 2775 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1343 | 1412 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | LB | 5 | 281 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 1296 | 1628 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | LB | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1233 | 1692 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 6 | 451 | 0 | 1 | 1332 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anele Ngcongca Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Núrio Fortuna Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Léo Duarte Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €3.4M | €3.0M | flat |
| Yohan Tavares Liga Portugal · 2016 | 28 | €2.8M | €600k | fell |
| Maksim Osipenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Miroslav Bogosavac Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.3M | flat |
| Ondrej Celustka Super Lig · 2016 | 27 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Aziz Behich Super Lig · 2016 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Porto B | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 7 Jul 2021 | Guimarães B | FC Porto B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Guimarães U23 | Guimarães B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Vitória SC U19 | Guimarães U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Penafiel U19 | Vitória SC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Penafiel U17 | Penafiel U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Penafiel U15 | Penafiel U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.