Daniel Rivas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daniel Rivas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €194k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1527 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1372
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €323k – €878k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -34% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1527 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | LB | 26 | 1527 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 1372 | 1182 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Formiga Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €2.0M | rose |
| Tom Pettersson Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Nikola Aksentijevic Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 23 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Renan Diniz Super Lig · 2017 | 24 | €500k | €50k | fell |
| David Bates Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Adam Dzwigala Liga Portugal · 2020 | 25 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Jordan Mustoe Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 26 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Brian Easton Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 25 | €450k | €400k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | Cerro Porteño | Avs FS | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Nacional | Cerro Porteño | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Cerro Porteño | Nacional | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Cerro U20 | Cerro Porteño | Unknown | €200k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.