
David Bates
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Bates's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 14.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 577 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1341
- Opponent strength
- 1404
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €461k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -52% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 577 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 9 | 577 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1404 | 1341 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 9 | 777 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1358 | 1317 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 27 | 2082 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1377 | 1367 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 25 | 1967 | 64% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1305 | 1302 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 28 | 2441 | 82% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1327 | 1265 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 19 | 1701 | 56% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1372 | 1228 | 0.55 |
| 2017/18 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 12 | 914 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1299 | 1434 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 7 | 630 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1324 | 1414 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Standard Liège | 9 | 803 | 1 | 0 | 1369 |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Rangers FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1301 |
| 2016/17 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ritchie De Laet Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 30 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Zoran Nizic Premier Liga · 2019 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Denis Polyakov Premier Liga · 2019 | 28 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Stefan Strandberg Premier Liga · 2019 | 29 | €900k | €800k | flat |
| Gilles Dewaele Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 28 | €900k | €250k | fell |
| Ivo Pinto Liga Portugal · 2020 | 30 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Sheldon Bateau Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 29 | €675k | €400k | fell |
| Steven Thicot Liga Portugal · 2015 | 28 | €700k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2024 | KV Mechelen | Standard Liège | €500k | €2.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Aberdeen FC | KV Mechelen | Unknown | €450k |
| 29 Aug 2021 | Hamburg | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Cercle Brugge | Hamburg | Free / loan | €700k |
| 7 Aug 2020 | Hamburg | Cercle Brugge | Free / loan | €475k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Sheff Wed | Hamburg | Free / loan | €475k |
| 8 Aug 2019 | Hamburg | Sheff Wed | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rangers | Hamburg | Free / loan | €250k |
| 11 Jan 2017 | Raith Rovers | Rangers | Unknown | €13k |
| 8 Jan 2017 | Rangers U20 | Raith Rovers | Free / loan | €13k |
| 5 Aug 2016 | Raith Rovers | Rangers U20 | Free / loan | €13k |
| 4 Dec 2015 | Brechin City | Raith Rovers | Free / loan | €13k |
| 11 Sept 2015 | Raith Rovers | Brechin City | Free / loan | €13k |
| 5 May 2015 | East Stirling | Raith Rovers | Free / loan | €13k |
| 3 Jan 2015 | Raith Rovers | East Stirling | Free / loan | €13k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Raith Rovers U17 | Raith Rovers | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.