David Bates

30 yrs · Centre-back · Scotland
Standard Liège · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: right · Height: 193 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.8M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€569k – €1.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€332k – €902k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€461k – €1.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.4M – €334k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€569k – €1.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€332k – €902k
Projected value (24 months)€461k – €1.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates David Bates's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average14.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.7 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.2M vs market €1.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-60% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.8M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
577 (21% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
14 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1341
Opponent strength
1404
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€461k – €1.3M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -52% to -37%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 577 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
76 (DEF)
Relative output kept
67%–160%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Standard LiègeJupiler Pro LeagueCB957721%000.000.05140413410.65
2024/25Standard LiègeJupiler Pro LeagueCB977729%000.000.04135813170.63
2023/24KV MechelenJupiler Pro LeagueCB27208277%100.040.06137713670.63
2022/23KV MechelenJupiler Pro LeagueCB25196764%200.090.09130513020.58
2021/22Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipCB28244182%110.070.06132712650.50
2020/21Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro LeagueCB19170156%010.050.07137212280.55
2017/18Rangers FCScottish PremiershipCB1291431%000.000.02129914340.47
2016/17Rangers FCScottish PremiershipCB763018%000.000.03132414140.48

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Jupiler Pro League Europe Play OffsStandard Liège9803101369
2021/22Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC218001—
2017/18Scottish Fa CupRangers FC327000—
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingRangers FC2180001301
2016/17Scottish Fa CupRangers FC19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ritchie De Laet
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
30€1.3M€1.0Mfell
Zoran Nizic
Premier Liga · 2019
30€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Denis Polyakov
Premier Liga · 2019
28€1.2M€700kfell
Stefan Strandberg
Premier Liga · 2019
29€900k€800kflat
Gilles Dewaele
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
28€900k€250kfell
Ivo Pinto
Liga Portugal · 2020
30€1.2M€500kfell
Sheldon Bateau
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
29€675k€400kfell
Steven Thicot
Liga Portugal · 2015
28€700k€350kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
24 Jul 2024KV MechelenStandard Liège€500k€2.0M
1 Sept 2022Aberdeen FCKV MechelenUnknown€450k
29 Aug 2021HamburgAberdeen FCFree / loan€700k
30 Jun 2021Cercle BruggeHamburgFree / loan€700k
7 Aug 2020HamburgCercle BruggeFree / loan€475k
30 Jun 2020Sheff WedHamburgFree / loan€475k
8 Aug 2019HamburgSheff WedFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jul 2018RangersHamburgFree / loan€250k
11 Jan 2017Raith RoversRangersUnknown€13k
8 Jan 2017Rangers U20Raith RoversFree / loan€13k
5 Aug 2016Raith RoversRangers U20Free / loan€13k
4 Dec 2015Brechin CityRaith RoversFree / loan€13k
11 Sept 2015Raith RoversBrechin CityFree / loan€13k
5 May 2015East StirlingRaith RoversFree / loan€13k
3 Jan 2015Raith RoversEast StirlingFree / loan€13k
1 Jul 2013Raith Rovers U17Raith RoversUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.