Jacopo Fazzini
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jacopo Fazzini's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-8.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.5M-12.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.5M-11.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.57x the positional average in the league (574 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 50.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.3M vs market €8.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 574 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1522
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.5M – €11.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; changed club; team strength up (+162 Elo); role change AM -> CM; relative output down 56% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -83% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 574 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CM | 20 | 574 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1522 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | FC Empoli | Serie A | AM | 20 | 1390 | 41% | 4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.51 | 1516 | 1344 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | FC Empoli | Serie A | CM | 31 | 1226 | 36% | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 1492 | 1388 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | FC Empoli | Serie A | CM | 21 | 819 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1480 | 1388 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 1205 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 2 | 166 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucien Agoumé Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €6.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Luca Pellegrini Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Amadou Diawara Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €14.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Alexis Beka Beka Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €4.5M | €800k | fell |
| Jens Cajuste Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Matheus Henrique Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €11.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Carles Pérez Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Max Meyer Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €8.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | FC Empoli | Fiorentina | €9.3M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Empoli U19 | FC Empoli | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Empoli U17 | Empoli U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Empoli FC Youth | Empoli U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Aug 2017 | Capezzano | Empoli FC Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.