Rayan Philippe
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rayan Philippe's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-6.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-5.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-5.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (1285 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.4M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1285 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1380
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €5.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -32% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1285 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | RW | 28 | 1285 | 42% | 5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.48 | 1507 | 1380 | 0.94 |
| 2020/21 | Dijon FCO | Ligue 1 | ST | 4 | 91 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1354 | 1211 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Dijon FCO | Ligue 1 | ST | 1 | 29 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 1395 | 1346 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 3 | 255 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Ajorque Ligue 1 · 2019 | 25 | €4.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Innocent Emeghara Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Aboubakar Kamara Super Lig · 2019 | 24 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Isaac Cuenca Laliga · 2016 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Junior Stanislas Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Fredrik Jensen Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Yaya Sanogo Ligue 1 · 2018 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Stéphane Bahoken Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €3.0M | €4.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | E. Braunschweig | Hamburg | €3.0M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Hesperange | E. Braunschweig | Free / loan | €400k |
| 29 Aug 2021 | Dijon | Hesperange | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | AS Nancy | Dijon | Free / loan | €700k |
| 29 Sept 2020 | Dijon | AS Nancy | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Dijon FCO B | Dijon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2020 | SC Toulon | Dijon FCO B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2020 | Dijon FCO B | SC Toulon | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Dijon U19 | Dijon FCO B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Dijon FCO U17 | Dijon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.