Kazımcan Karataş
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kazımcan Karataş's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-4.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1139 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1412
- Opponent strength
- 1278
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €4.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+210 Elo); league level down (-71 Elo); relative output down 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -46% to +67%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1139 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | LB | 11 | 700 | 23% | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.22 | 1278 | 1357 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LB | 8 | 439 | 14% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 1276 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | LB | 18 | 1225 | 45% | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.28 | 1309 | 1202 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | MKE Ankaragücü | Super Lig | LB | 11 | 610 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1264 | 1218 | 0.45 |
| 2023/24 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LB | 8 | 404 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1234 | 1597 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LB | 11 | 725 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1292 | 1535 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Altay SK | Super Lig | LB | 23 | 1438 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1264 | 1138 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 4 | 350 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1814 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1366 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Sviatchenko Superliga · 2015 | 24 | €1.5M | €2.8M | rose |
| Adam Gabriel Superliga · 2024 | 23 | €1.2M | €650k | fell |
| Fabrice N'Sakala Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €2.2M | €1.2M | fell |
| Henrik Heggheim Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ilya Agapov Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Lefteris Lyratzis Super League 1 · 2023 | 23 | €2.0M | €850k | fell |
| Aurélio Buta Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Kostyantyn Vivcharenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Basaksehir | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 6 Feb 2026 | Galatasaray | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Orenburg | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 29 Jul 2024 | Galatasaray | Orenburg | Free / loan | €1.9M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Ankaragücü | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €1.9M |
| 8 Feb 2024 | Galatasaray | Ankaragücü | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Altay SK | Galatasaray | €1.1M | €950k |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Altay SK Yth | Altay SK | Unknown | €25k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.