Freddie Potts
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Freddie Potts's performance-implied value at EUR 4.9M-25.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.3M-17.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.0M-19.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (1167 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 74.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €11.7M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1167 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1619
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.0M – €19.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -37% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1167 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | DM | 22 | 1167 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1619 | 1520 | 1.30 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 196 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenedy Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Sean Longstaff Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Isaac Hayden Premier League · 2018 | 23 | €7.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Tyler Roberts Premier League · 2021 | 22 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Steven Alzate Premier League · 2021 | 23 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Edimilson Fernandes Premier League · 2018 | 22 | €5.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Tariq Lamptey Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | West Ham U21 | West Ham | Unknown | €1.4M |
| 31 May 2025 | Portsmouth | West Ham U21 | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 26 Aug 2024 | West Ham U21 | Portsmouth | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 May 2024 | Wycombe | West Ham U21 | Free / loan | €600k |
| 28 Jul 2023 | West Ham U21 | Wycombe | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | West Ham U18 | West Ham U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | West Ham Yth. | West Ham U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.