Thomas Kristensen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thomas Kristensen's performance-implied value at EUR 5.5M-19.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.1M-18.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.7M-22.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.1M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2475 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1518
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.7M – €22.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; relative output up 62% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -48% to +88%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 28 | 2475 | 72% | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1518 | 1442 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 24 | 1753 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1516 | 1389 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 26 | 2098 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1515 | 1420 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CB | 6 | 527 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1228 | 1356 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CB | 20 | 1642 | 83% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1288 | 1331 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CB | 3 | 34 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1284 | 1303 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 3 | 124 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1409 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxence Lacroix Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €20.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| John Brooks Bundesliga · 2017 | 24 | €14.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Jeremiah St. Juste Bundesliga · 2020 | 24 | €7.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Davide Zappacosta Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €8.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Erhan Masovic Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gastón Álvarez Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €15.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Iago Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €5.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Mouctar Diakhaby Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Aarhus GF | Udinese | €5.0M | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Aarhus GF U19 | Aarhus GF | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Aarhus GF Youth | Aarhus GF U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vejle BK Youth | Aarhus GF Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Aarhus GF Youth | Vejle BK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.