Marko Lazetić
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marko Lazetić's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (1055 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €932k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1055 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.52
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1119
- Opponent strength
- 1209
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €575k – €2.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -46% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1055 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 27 | 1055 | 36% | 4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.52 | 1209 | 1119 | 0.31 |
| 2023/24 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | ST | 8 | 172 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 1437 | 1190 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | AC Milan | Serie A | ST | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1227 | 1622 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK TSC Backa Topola | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Red Star Belgrade | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1446 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Red Star Belgrade | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1455 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Robinson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Kevin Rosero Super League 1 · 2022 | 24 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Yegor Gunichev Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Henrik Ojamaa Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 24 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Mustafa Eskihellaç Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.4M | rose |
| Julian Kristoffersen Superliga · 2020 | 23 | €450k | €200k | fell |
| Joelson Fernandes Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Aliou Badji Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €700k | €1.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2025 | AC Milan | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | FK TSC | AC Milan | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | AC Milan | FK TSC | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Fortuna Sittard | AC Milan | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 24 Aug 2023 | AC Milan | Fortuna Sittard | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | SCR Altach | AC Milan | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 3 Feb 2023 | AC Milan | SCR Altach | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 26 Jan 2022 | Red Star | AC Milan | €4.9M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Red Star U19 | Red Star | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Graficar | Red Star U19 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Red Star U19 | Graficar | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Red Star U17 | Red Star U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Red Star U15 | Red Star U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.