
Mustafa Eskihellaç
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mustafa Eskihellaç's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2329 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1368
- Opponent strength
- 1286
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+117 Elo); relative output up 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -73% to -42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | LB | 29 | 2329 | 76% | 0 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 1286 | 1368 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | LB | 16 | 1263 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1262 | 1198 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | LB | 14 | 1191 | 37% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 1292 | 1307 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | RM | 35 | 3069 | 90% | 2 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 1298 | 1212 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | RW | 14 | 877 | 27% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 1260 | 1106 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | RW | 5 | 235 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1328 | 1295 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Yeni Malatyaspor | Super Lig | RW | 31 | 2633 | 77% | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 1265 | 1047 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Yeni Malatyaspor | Super Lig | RW | 25 | 1092 | 30% | 2 | 4 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 1264 | 1190 | 0.37 |
| 2018/19 | Yeni Malatyaspor | Super Lig | RM | 5 | 28 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1522 | 1320 | 0.58 |
| 2017/18 | Yeni Malatyaspor | Super Lig | LM | 2 | 25 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1476 | 1348 | 0.68 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willyan Rocha Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €6.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Filip Novak Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €2.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Florent Hadergjonaj Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Onur Bulut Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €3.5M | €850k | fell |
| Nana Asare Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 28 | €1.8M | €2.5M | rose |
| Steven Caulker Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €4.4M | €900k | fell |
| Jonas Svensson Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Miroslav Bogosavac Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2025 | Gaziantep FK | Trabzonspor | €341k | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Kasimpasa | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 18 Feb 2023 | Gaziantep FK | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 25 Jul 2022 | Y. Malatyaspor | Gaziantep FK | €829k | €900k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Boluspor | Y. Malatyaspor | Free / loan | €250k |
| 9 Aug 2019 | Y. Malatyaspor | Boluspor | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Elazigspor | Y. Malatyaspor | Free / loan | €250k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Y. Malatyaspor | Elazigspor | Free / loan | €150k |
| 18 Jan 2018 | Düzyurtspor | Y. Malatyaspor | €194k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Düzyurtspor Yth | Düzyurtspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.