Mustafa Eskihellaç

29 yrs · Left-back (also LM, RM, RW) · Türkiye
Trabzonspor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 175 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€4.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.0M – €3.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€797k – €1.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.4M – €3.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.4M – €593k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.0M – €3.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€797k – €1.6M
Projected value (24 months)€1.4M – €3.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mustafa Eskihellaç's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 51

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage43.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.4M vs market €4.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-50% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2329 (76% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.19
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.20
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
43 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1368
Opponent strength
1286
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.4M – €3.1M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+117 Elo); relative output up 51% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -73% to -42%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26TrabzonsporSuper LigLB29232976%050.190.20128613680.40
2024/25Gaziantep FKSuper LigLB16126339%010.070.11126211980.39
2024/25TrabzonsporSuper LigLB14119137%020.150.14129213070.39
2023/24Gaziantep FKSuper LigRM35306990%240.180.20129812120.45
2022/23Gaziantep FKSuper LigRW1487727%100.100.29126011060.50
2022/23KasimpasaSuper LigRW52357%000.000.39132812950.50
2021/22Yeni MalatyasporSuper LigRW31263377%220.140.27126510470.42
2020/21Yeni MalatyasporSuper LigRW25109230%240.490.51126411900.37
2018/19Yeni MalatyasporSuper LigRM5281%000.000.23152213200.58
2017/18Yeni MalatyasporSuper LigLM2251%000.000.24147613480.68

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Willyan Rocha
Premier Liga · 2024
29€6.0M€5.5Mflat
Filip Novak
Super Lig · 2020
30€2.8M€1.0Mfell
Florent Hadergjonaj
Super Lig · 2022
28€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Onur Bulut
Super Lig · 2023
29€3.5M€850kfell
Nana Asare
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
28€1.8M€2.5Mrose
Steven Caulker
Super Lig · 2021
30€4.4M€900kfell
Jonas Svensson
Super Lig · 2023
30€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Miroslav Bogosavac
Premier Liga · 2023
27€3.5M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
7 Feb 2025Gaziantep FKTrabzonspor€341k€1.3M
30 Jun 2023KasimpasaGaziantep FKFree / loan€1.4M
18 Feb 2023Gaziantep FKKasimpasaFree / loan€1.3M
25 Jul 2022Y. MalatyasporGaziantep FK€829k€900k
3 Aug 2020BolusporY. MalatyasporFree / loan€250k
9 Aug 2019Y. MalatyasporBolusporFree / loan€250k
30 Jun 2019ElazigsporY. MalatyasporFree / loan€250k
31 Jan 2019Y. MalatyasporElazigsporFree / loan€150k
18 Jan 2018DüzyurtsporY. Malatyaspor€194kData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Düzyurtspor YthDüzyurtsporUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.