Hugo Bueno
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hugo Bueno's performance-implied value at EUR 9.6M-18.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.3M-18.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.3M-19.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (2366 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.0M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2366 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1425
- Opponent strength
- 1595
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.3M – €19.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; changed club; team strength down (-141 Elo); league level up (+297 Elo); role change LB -> LM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -62% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LM | 35 | 2366 | 69% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 1595 | 1425 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 20 | 1204 | 39% | 0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 1354 | 1565 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LB | 22 | 732 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1590 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LB | 21 | 1315 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 1569 | 1497 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 9 | 546 | 0 | 1 | 1670 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 50 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hughes Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Solly March Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Tom Carroll Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €7.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Calum Chambers Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €14.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| James Ward-Prowse Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Alexis Mac Allister Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €16.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Carles Aleñá Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €9.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Ryan Yates Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €11.0M | €12.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Feyenoord | Wolves | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 13 Aug 2024 | Wolves | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Wolves U21 | Wolves | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Wolves U18 | Wolves U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Areosa U19 | Wolves U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.