Marat Bokoev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marat Bokoev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €865k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2407 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1212
- Opponent strength
- 1351
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €615k – €2.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 53 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -34% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2407 | 89% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1351 | 1212 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | CB | 17 | 986 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1323 | 1260 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 4 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 8 | 586 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grégory Mertens Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Noë Dussenne Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
| Pierre-Yves Ngawa Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 24 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Calvin Verdonk Eredivisie · 2020 | 23 | €1.6M | €700k | fell |
| Guillaume François Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Nazım Sangaré Super Lig · 2019 | 25 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Tomás Silva Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Dhurgham Ismail Super Lig · 2017 | 23 | €1.3M | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2023 | Veles Moscow | Akron Tolyatti | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Loko-Kazanka M. | Veles Moscow | Free / loan | €125k |
| 10 Feb 2021 | FC Krasniy | Loko-Kazanka M. | €12k | €125k |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Without Club | FC Krasniy | Unknown | €50k |
| 11 Feb 2020 | Spartak V. | Without Club | Unknown | €50k |
| 23 Aug 2019 | Unknown | Spartak V. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Avtodor Vl. | Unknown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Unknown | Avtodor Vl. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.