Sinaly Diomandé
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sinaly Diomandé's performance-implied value at EUR 3.8M-9.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-6.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-8.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.4M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2134 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1402
- Opponent strength
- 1480
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €8.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -39% to +118%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | CB | 24 | 2134 | 70% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 1480 | 1402 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 1945 | 64% | 3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 1471 | 1393 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 10 | 890 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1477 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 24 | 1959 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1439 | 1549 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 11 | 577 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1363 | 1587 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 1117 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1417 | 1587 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 4 | 226 | 0 | 0 | 1448 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Tonelli Serie A · 2015 | 25 | €4.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Maciej Rybus Premier Liga · 2016 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Bremer Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €10.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Ciaran Clark Premier League · 2015 | 26 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Erhan Masovic Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Vasco Regini Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €3.5M | €2.7M | fell |
| Harry Maguire Premier League · 2017 | 24 | €8.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Martin Erlić Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Lyon | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Guidars FC | Olymp. Lyon B | €550k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.