Andréas Hountondji
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andréas Hountondji's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1075 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.1M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1075 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.54
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -59% to +104%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1075 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | ST | 21 | 1075 | 35% | 4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.54 | 1507 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 10 | 309 | 11% | 1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 1476 | 1317 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 2 | 126 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Piccoli Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Moritz Broschinski Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €3.0M | €600k | fell |
| Alan Virginius Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Carles Gil Premier League · 2016 | 24 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Amato Ciciretti Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Emmanuel Mayuka Ligue 1 · 2014 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Bruno Petkovic Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €1.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Pietro Iemmello Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.4M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | St. Pauli | Burnley | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 8 Jul 2025 | Burnley | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Standard Liège | Burnley | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 7 Jan 2025 | Burnley | Standard Liège | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 17 Jul 2024 | SM Caen | Burnley | €4.0M | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Rodez AF | SM Caen | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 20 Jul 2023 | SM Caen | Rodez AF | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | US Orléans | SM Caen | Free / loan | €500k |
| 13 Jan 2023 | SM Caen | US Orléans | Free / loan | €400k |
| 12 Jan 2023 | Quevilly Rouen | SM Caen | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | SM Caen | Quevilly Rouen | Free / loan | €500k |
| 20 Jul 2021 | SM Caen B | SM Caen | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | SM Caen U19 | SM Caen B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | US Torcy Yth. | SM Caen U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.