
Roberto Piccoli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Roberto Piccoli's performance-implied value at EUR 4.8M-20.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.8M-18.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.1M-16.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (1664 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.9M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1664 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1489
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.1M – €16.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 43 pts; changed club; team strength up (+137 Elo); relative output down 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -36% to +79%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1664 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | ST | 32 | 1664 | 49% | 4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 1489 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | ST | 37 | 3145 | 92% | 10 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.59 | 1519 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | US Lecce | Serie A | ST | 35 | 1362 | 40% | 5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.61 | 1501 | 1359 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | FC Empoli | Serie A | ST | 2 | 37 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1399 | 1388 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | FC Empoli | Serie A | ST | 13 | 514 | 15% | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.60 | 1481 | 1388 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | ST | 7 | 189 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1536 | 1357 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | ST | 5 | 215 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 1562 | 1325 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | ST | 12 | 185 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 1525 | 1566 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | ST | 20 | 700 | 20% | 5 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 1468 | 1363 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | ST | 1 | 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1244 | 1666 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 77 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 66 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 121 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 3 | 262 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Blas Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Krzysztof Piatek Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €21.5M | €12.0M | fell |
| Kevin Volland Bundesliga · 2017 | 25 | €17.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Taty Castellanos Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €15.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Bruma Bundesliga · 2018 | 24 | €12.5M | €6.5M | fell |
| Jérémie Boga Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €20.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Jonas Wind Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Ishak Belfodil Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €5.5M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2025 | Cagliari | Fiorentina | €25.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Atalanta | Cagliari | €12.5M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Cagliari | Atalanta | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 17 Jul 2024 | Atalanta | Cagliari | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Lecce | Atalanta | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Aug 2023 | Atalanta | Lecce | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 31 Aug 2023 | FC Empoli | Atalanta | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Atalanta | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Hellas Verona | Atalanta | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Atalanta | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Genoa | Atalanta | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 25 Jan 2022 | Atalanta | Genoa | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Spezia Calcio | Atalanta | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 15 Sept 2020 | Atalanta | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Atalanta U19 | Atalanta | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Atalanta U17 | Atalanta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Atalanta Youth | Atalanta U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | SS Tritium Yout | Atalanta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.