Roberto Piccoli

25 yrs · Striker · Italy
ACF Fiorentina · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€14.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€10.8M – €18.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.8M – €20.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€5.1M – €16.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€14.1M – €10.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€10.8M – €18.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.8M – €20.8M
Projected value (24 months)€5.1M – €16.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€14.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Roberto Piccoli's performance-implied value at EUR 4.8M-20.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.8M-18.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.1M-16.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (1664 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 15

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average72.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €13.9M vs market €14.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-28% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1664 (49% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.27
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.36
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
72 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1506
Opponent strength
1489
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€5.1M – €16.2M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 43 pts; changed club; team strength up (+137 Elo); relative output down 36% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -36% to +79%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1664 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26ACF FiorentinaSerie AST32166449%410.270.36148915060.93
2024/25Cagliari CalcioSerie AST37314592%1030.370.59151913680.99
2023/24US LecceSerie AST35136240%500.330.61150113590.98
2023/24FC EmpoliSerie AST2371%000.000.60139913880.98
2022/23FC EmpoliSerie AST1351415%200.350.60148113880.94
2022/23Hellas VeronaSerie AST71896%000.000.60153613570.94
2021/22Genoa CFCSerie AST52156%000.000.64156213250.89
2021/22Atalanta BCSerie AST121855%100.490.39152515660.89
2020/21Spezia CalcioSerie AST2070020%510.770.73146813630.90
2019/20Atalanta BCSerie AST1160%000.000.21124416660.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupCagliari Calcio17710—
2025/26Italy CupACF Fiorentina16610—
2024/25Italy CupCagliari Calcio312120—
2023/24Italy CupFC Empoli19001—
2023/24Italy CupUS Lecce19010—
2022/23Italy CupHellas Verona13000—
2020/21Italy CupSpezia Calcio326211—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ludovic Blas
Ligue 1 · 2024
26€15.0M€10.0Mfell
Krzysztof Piatek
Serie A · 2020
25€21.5M€12.0Mfell
Kevin Volland
Bundesliga · 2017
25€17.0M€30.0Mrose
Taty Castellanos
Serie A · 2024
26€15.0M€28.0Mrose
Bruma
Bundesliga · 2018
24€12.5M€6.5Mfell
Jérémie Boga
Serie A · 2021
24€20.0M€14.0Mfell
Jonas Wind
Bundesliga · 2023
24€14.0M€12.0Mflat
Ishak Belfodil
Bundesliga · 2018
26€5.5M€12.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
25 Aug 2025CagliariFiorentina€25.0M€12.0M
1 Jul 2025AtalantaCagliari€12.5M€12.0M
30 Jun 2025CagliariAtalantaFree / loan€12.0M
17 Jul 2024AtalantaCagliariFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2024LecceAtalantaFree / loan€4.0M
31 Aug 2023AtalantaLecceFree / loan€3.5M
31 Aug 2023FC EmpoliAtalantaFree / loan€3.5M
31 Jan 2023AtalantaFC EmpoliFree / loan€3.5M
30 Jan 2023Hellas VeronaAtalantaFree / loan€3.5M
1 Jul 2022AtalantaHellas VeronaFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2022GenoaAtalantaFree / loan€4.0M
25 Jan 2022AtalantaGenoaFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2021Spezia CalcioAtalantaFree / loan€3.0M
15 Sept 2020AtalantaSpezia CalcioFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2020Atalanta U19AtalantaUnknown€1.0M
1 Jul 2018Atalanta U17Atalanta U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Atalanta YouthAtalanta U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014SS Tritium YoutAtalanta YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.