Matisse Samoise
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matisse Samoise's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (1374 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1374 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1392
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -23% to +85%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1374 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 18 | 1374 | 51% | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 1392 | 1403 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 22 | 1246 | 46% | 0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 1381 | 1422 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 29 | 2336 | 87% | 5 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 1375 | 1436 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 27 | 1969 | 64% | 2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 1286 | 1451 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 27 | 1993 | 65% | 2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 1342 | 1420 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 5 | 33 | 1% | 1 | 0 | 2.73 | 0.32 | 1393 | 1390 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 5 | 171 | 0 | 1 | 1252 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 5 | 367 | 1 | 1 | 1443 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1434 |
| 2022/23 | Volkswagen Supercup | KAA Gent | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1318 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1555 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Fossey Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| In-beom Hwang Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €2.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Jailson Super Lig · 2019 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Andriy Bogdanov Premier Liga · 2013 | 23 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Lazaros Christodoulopoulos Super League 1 · 2013 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Paulinho Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Kevin Pina Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €1.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Abdulkadir Parmak Super Lig · 2019 | 25 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov 2020 | KAA Gent U21 | KAA Gent | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | KAA Gent U18 | KAA Gent U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | KAA Gent U17 | KAA Gent U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | KAA Gent Youth | KAA Gent U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.