Nicolò Savona
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolò Savona's performance-implied value at EUR 11.3M-21.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.0M-21.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.7M-26.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.4M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1026 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1618
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.7M – €26.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; changed club; league level up (+111 Elo); relative output up 80% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -34% to +59%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1026 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | RB | 14 | 1026 | 30% | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 1618 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Juventus FC | Serie A | RB | 28 | 1727 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1506 | 1629 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 287 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 97 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 7 | 427 | 0 | 0 | 1658 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Juventus FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Tierney Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €20.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Levi Colwill Premier League · 2023 | 20 | €30.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €22.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Víctor Ruiz Laliga · 2014 | 25 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Trevoh Chalobah Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €20.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Javier Manquillo Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Nathan Patterson Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Josha Vagnoman Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2025 | Juventus | Nott'm Forest | €13.0M | €12.0M |
| 8 Aug 2024 | Juve Next Gen | Juventus | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Juventus U19 | Juve Next Gen | Unknown | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | SPAL U19 | Juventus U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 Aug 2020 | Juventus U17 | SPAL U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Juventus Youth | Juventus U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.