Trevoh Chalobah
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Trevoh Chalobah's performance-implied value at EUR 23.4M-46.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 28.0M-57.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.8M-38.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €42.2M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2782 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1579
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €20.8M – €38.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; changed club; relative output down 58% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -72% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 34 | 2782 | 81% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1579 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 12 | 1063 | 31% | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 1556 | 1620 | 1.23 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 13 | 911 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1573 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 13 | 950 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1560 | 1629 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 25 | 1603 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1582 | 1579 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 20 | 1448 | 42% | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 1516 | 1737 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2239 | 65% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1448 | 1344 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 8 | 571 | 0 | 0 | 1713 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 6 | 437 | 0 | 0 | 1700 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 3 | 175 | 1 | 0 | 1664 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Super Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1689 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €42.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Cristian Romero Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €60.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Çağlar Söyüncü Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €40.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Raphaël Varane Laliga · 2019 | 26 | €70.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Diogo Dalot Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €35.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Nélson Semedo Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €28.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Shkodran Mustafi Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €25.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Michael Keane Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €30.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2025 | Crystal Palace | Chelsea | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Chelsea U23 | Chelsea | Unknown | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FC Lorient | Chelsea U23 | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 18 Aug 2020 | Chelsea U23 | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Huddersfield | Chelsea U23 | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 8 Aug 2019 | Chelsea U23 | Huddersfield | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 May 2019 | Ipswich | Chelsea U23 | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Chelsea U23 | Ipswich | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Chelsea Youth | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.