Josha Vagnoman
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Josha Vagnoman's performance-implied value at EUR 3.9M-14.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.6M-13.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-14.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.2M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1587 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1567
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.3M – €14.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -59% to +44%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1587 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | RB | 27 | 1587 | 52% | 1 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 1505 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | RB | 26 | 1835 | 60% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1508 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | RB | 18 | 1182 | 39% | 2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 1528 | 1637 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | RM | 23 | 1477 | 48% | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 1518 | 1429 | 1.04 |
| 2017/18 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | RB | 1 | 20 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1898 | 1410 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 248 | 1 | 0 | 1448 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 139 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 546 | 1 | 1 | 1626 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 171 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 315 | 0 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pol Lirola Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €8.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Kevin Mbabu Bundesliga · 2020 | 25 | €6.5M | €9.0M | rose |
| Kristijan Jakic Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €7.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Danilo D'Ambrosio Serie A · 2015 | 27 | €5.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Davide Calabria Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €20.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Atsuto Uchida Bundesliga · 2014 | 26 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Birger Meling Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Wesley Hoedt Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2022 | Hamburg | Stuttgart | €4.5M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | HSV U19 | Hamburg | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hamburg U17 | HSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | HSV Yth. | Hamburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Hummelsb. Jgd. | HSV Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Poppenbüt. Yth. | Hummelsb. Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.