Talha Ülvan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Talha Ülvan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 5.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €219k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1106 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €277k – €565k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -3% to +56%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1106 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | RB | 20 | 1106 | 36% | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 1267 | 1204 | 0.40 |
| 2022/23 | Giresunspor | Super Lig | RB | 7 | 86 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1202 | 1233 | 0.50 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeppe Simonsen Superliga · 2020 | 25 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Luka Gucek Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Yuriy Kopyna Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €300k | €400k | rose |
| Taras Sakiv Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Emiliano Purita Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Ivan Milicevic Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Manolis Saliakas Super League 1 · 2020 | 24 | €300k | €1.0M | rose |
| Nicholas Mickelson Superliga · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €1.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | Karagümrük | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €250k |
| 25 Jul 2024 | Giresunspor | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €125k |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Samsunspor | Giresunspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 12 Jan 2022 | OH Leuven U21 | Samsunspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | OH Leuven U18 | OH Leuven U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.