Ilias Akhomach
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilias Akhomach's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-10.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.2M-16.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.9M-19.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (894 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 51.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.1M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 894 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1523
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.9M – €19.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-74 Elo); relative output up 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -44% to +28%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 894 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RW | 11 | 713 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 1505 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RW | 9 | 181 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1477 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RW | 11 | 587 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 1440 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RW | 31 | 1511 | 44% | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 1488 | 1577 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 99 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 4 | 81 | 0 | 2 | 1468 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Morocco | 3 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 5 | 409 | 1 | 1 | 1500 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 204 | 1 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed-Ali Cho Ligue 1 · 2024 | 20 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Arthur Cabral Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Josip Drmic Bundesliga · 2016 | 24 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €14.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Faris Moumbagna Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Clinton N'Jie Ligue 1 · 2017 | 24 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Demarai Gray Premier League · 2017 | 21 | €9.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Khouma Babacar Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Rayo Vallecano | Villarreal | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Villarreal | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 3 Jul 2023 | Barça Atlètic | Villarreal | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Barça U19 | Barça Atlètic | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Barça U16 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | G.Manresa Yth. | Barça Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Barça Youth | G.Manresa Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.