
Andy Diouf
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andy Diouf's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-25.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.6M-27.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.6M-34.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (569 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 69.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €20.4M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 569 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1698
- Opponent strength
- 1459
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.6M – €34.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 56 pts; changed club; team strength up (+214 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR -34% to +91%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 569 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 19 | 479 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 1459 | 1722 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1571 | 1569 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CM | 34 | 2234 | 73% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1462 | 1484 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CM | 25 | 1320 | 43% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1462 | 1518 | 0.87 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 5 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1333 | 1581 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1750 | 1445 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 278 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 4 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 1633 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Lens | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1442 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | RC Lens | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1510 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RC Lens | 2 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommaso Pobega Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Nicola Zalewski Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €12.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Adrien Rabiot Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €35.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Raoul Bellanova Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €5.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Marco Verratti Ligue 1 · 2016 | 24 | €40.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Felix Nmecha Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €20.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Óscar Rodríguez Laliga · 2021 | 23 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Franck Kessié Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €25.0M | €14.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2025 | Lens | Inter | €20.0M | €15.0M |
| 2 Jul 2023 | Basel | Lens | €14.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Stade Rennais | Basel | €5.5M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Basel | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 18 Jul 2022 | Stade Rennais | Basel | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rennes B | Stade Rennais | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Rennes U19 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Rennes Jugend | Rennes U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | ACBB Youth | Rennes Jugend | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | PSG Youth | ACBB Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.