Andy Diouf

23 yrs · Central midfielder · France
RC Lens · Ligue 1 · Foot: left · Height: 187 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€20.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€14.6M – €27.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.5M – €25.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€11.6M – €34.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€23.5M – €10.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€14.6M – €27.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.5M – €25.2M
Projected value (24 months)€11.6M – €34.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€20.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Andy Diouf's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-25.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.6M-27.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.6M-34.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (569 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average69.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23.1 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €20.4M vs market €20.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral+1% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
569 (17% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.16
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
69 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1698
Opponent strength
1459
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€11.6M – €34.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 56 pts; changed club; team strength up (+214 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR -34% to +91%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 569 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Inter MilanSerie ACM1947914%100.190.11145917220.93
2025/26RC LensLigue 1CM1903%000.000.24157115690.88
2024/25RC LensLigue 1CM34223473%120.120.13146214840.88
2023/24RC LensLigue 1CM25132043%100.070.10146215180.87
2021/22Stade Rennais FCLigue 1CM5110%000.000.16133315810.86
2020/21Stade Rennais FCLigue 1CM1110%000.000.41175014450.75

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupInter Milan427820—
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan439101633
2025/26Supercoppa ItalianaInter Milan119001583
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingRC Lens2180001442
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueRC Lens280001510
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueRC Lens236001659

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Tommaso Pobega
Serie A · 2023
24€14.0M€9.0Mfell
Nicola Zalewski
Serie A · 2024
22€12.0M€20.0Mrose
Adrien Rabiot
Ligue 1 · 2019
24€35.0M€30.0Mflat
Raoul Bellanova
Serie A · 2023
23€5.0M€24.0Mrose
Marco Verratti
Ligue 1 · 2016
24€40.0M€70.0Mrose
Felix Nmecha
Bundesliga · 2024
24€20.0M€50.0Mrose
Óscar Rodríguez
Laliga · 2021
23€12.0M€8.0Mfell
Franck Kessié
Laliga · 2023
27€25.0M€14.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
22 Aug 2025LensInter€20.0M€15.0M
2 Jul 2023BaselLens€14.0M€7.0M
1 Jul 2023Stade RennaisBasel€5.5M€7.0M
30 Jun 2023BaselStade RennaisFree / loan€7.0M
18 Jul 2022Stade RennaisBaselFree / loan€500k
1 Jul 2021Rennes BStade RennaisUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2020Rennes U19Rennes BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2020Rennes JugendRennes U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018ACBB YouthRennes JugendFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015PSG YouthACBB YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.