Danilo Veiga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Danilo Veiga's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-5.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3022 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €5.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 40 pts; changed club; team strength up (+156 Elo); league level up (+119 Elo); role change RM -> RB; relative output down 47% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -36% to +46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Lecce | Serie A | RB | 36 | 3022 | 88% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 1499 | 1352 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | RM | 15 | 1283 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 1373 | 1152 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | US Lecce | Serie A | RB | 13 | 365 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1502 | 1351 | 0.99 |
| 2022/23 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | RB | 9 | 685 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1410 | 1341 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 123 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Gil Vicente FC | 3 | 222 | 0 | 0 | 1415 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Perrin Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Bastos Premier Liga · 2015 | 24 | €1.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Óscar Gil Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €3.0M | €700k | fell |
| Edgar Ié Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Gia Grigalava Premier Liga · 2014 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Marcel Tisserand Ligue 1 · 2016 | 23 | €1.5M | €7.5M | rose |
| Davide Biraschi Serie A · 2019 | 25 | €4.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Florian Miguel Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €1.6M | €1.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2025 | Estrela Amadora | Lecce | €1.0M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | HNK Rijeka | Estrela Amadora | Unknown | €800k |
| 20 Jan 2023 | Gil Vicente | HNK Rijeka | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Felgueiras | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | P. Ferreira U19 | Felgueiras | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | FC Porto U19 | P. Ferreira U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Porto U17 | FC Porto U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Padroense U17 | FC Porto U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Porto U15 | Padroense U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Porto Youth | FC Porto U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Salgueiros Y | FC Porto Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | E. Fânzeres Fr. | Salgueiros Y | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.