Maxence Rivera
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maxence Rivera's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-5.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-4.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (2060 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.7M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2060 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1284
- Opponent strength
- 1302
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €4.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -36% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | LW | 30 | 2060 | 67% | 4 | 5 | 0.39 | 0.47 | 1302 | 1284 | 0.43 |
| 2021/22 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | RW | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1375 | 1321 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | RW | 17 | 224 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1404 | 1371 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | RW | 1 | 24 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1418 | 1383 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 4 | 212 | 1 | 3 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altin Zeqiri Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vladislav Sarveli Premier Liga · 2022 | 25 | €1.8M | €900k | fell |
| Stephen Odey Superliga · 2022 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Makhtar Gueye Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Georgios Masouras Super League 1 · 2019 | 25 | €1.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Matías Vargas Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Lucas Andersen Superliga · 2019 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.3M | flat |
| Haji Wright Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | USL Dunkerque | Heerenveen | €600k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Saint-Étienne | USL Dunkerque | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Le Puy Foot | Saint-Étienne | Free / loan | €350k |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Saint-Étienne | Le Puy Foot | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Saint-Étienne B | Saint-Étienne | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | St-Étienne U19 | Saint-Étienne B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | St-Étienne U17 | St-Étienne U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | ASSE Yth. | St-Étienne U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Bourgoin Jugend | ASSE Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.