Cláudio Braga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cláudio Braga's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-7.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-8.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-10.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (2553 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.4M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2553 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.67
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.52
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1332
- Opponent strength
- 1209
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €10.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -32% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 33 | 2553 | 86% | 14 | 5 | 0.67 | 0.52 | 1209 | 1332 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedat Muriqi Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €9.5M | €7.0M | fell |
| Cyle Larin Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €11.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Tobias Lauritsen Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| David Akintola Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €2.4M | €2.4M | flat |
| Pep Biel Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Daniel Mancini Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Alassane Ndao Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €4.5M | €2.2M | fell |
| Bojan Miovski Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Aalesunds FK | Heart of Midl. | €520k | €500k |
| 15 Feb 2024 | Moss | Aalesunds FK | €220k | €300k |
| 2 Feb 2022 | AC Vila Meã | Moss | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | SC Ideal | AC Vila Meã | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Fátima | SC Ideal | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Valadares Gaia | CD Fátima | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rio Ave B | Valadares Gaia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rio Ave FC U19 | Rio Ave B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | P. Ferreira U17 | Rio Ave FC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | CD Candal U17 | P. Ferreira U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | CD Candal U15 | CD Candal U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2013 | Boavista U15 | CD Candal U15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Boavista CJ | Boavista U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Candal Formação | Boavista CJ | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.