Talles Brener
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Talles Brener's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.80x the positional average in the league (1232 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €284k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1232 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1039
- Opponent strength
- 1181
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €254k – €550k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -43% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1232 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | AM | 14 | 1232 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.32 | 1181 | 1039 | 0.25 |
| 2023/24 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | AM | 23 | 1418 | 53% | 5 | 3 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 1261 | 1265 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | AM | 28 | 2089 | 77% | 6 | 6 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 1273 | 1218 | 0.38 |
| 2020/21 | Olimpik Donetsk | Premier Liga | RM | 13 | 795 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1315 | 1157 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleg Slobodyan Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Sergiy Kosovskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Ben Purrington Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Connor Randall Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €450k | €175k | fell |
| Theofanis Tzandaris Super League 1 · 2022 | 29 | €250k | €300k | rose |
| Alexandros Nikolias Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Muharrem Jashari Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €500k | €1.0M | rose |
| Adrián Colombino Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €600k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | Kashima Antlers | Rukh Lviv | Free / loan | €500k |
| 15 Aug 2024 | Rukh Lviv | Kashima Antlers | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | KuPS | Rukh Lviv | Free / loan | €300k |
| 2 Apr 2022 | Rukh Lviv | KuPS | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jul 2021 | Olimpik Donetsk | Rukh Lviv | Free / loan | €200k |
| 5 Feb 2021 | Vila Nova FC | Olimpik Donetsk | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Mirassol-SP | Vila Nova FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2019 | Noroeste | Mirassol-SP | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Mirassol-SP | Noroeste | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Fluminense U20 | Mirassol-SP | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.