Gabriel Pereira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriel Pereira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-4.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.9M-8.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-7.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.7M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1765 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1359
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €7.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -18% to +43%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1765 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CB | 20 | 1765 | 89% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1265 | 1359 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CB | 17 | 1384 | 70% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 1304 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 31 | 2779 | 91% | 4 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1387 | 1276 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 7 | 412 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1471 | 1341 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 702 | 0 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 540 | 1 | 0 | 1393 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 540 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 287 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 157 | 0 | 0 | 1234 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheikhou Kouyaté Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 25 | €7.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Andreas Maxsø Superliga · 2021 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ridgeciano Haps Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Anele Ngcongca Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €4.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Eren Elmalı Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €3.6M | €5.0M | rose |
| Falaye Sacko Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Léo Duarte Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €3.4M | €3.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2024 | Gil Vicente | Copenhagen | €5.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Vilafranquense | Gil Vicente | €650k | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Volta Redonda | Vilafranquense | Unknown | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Vilafranquense | Volta Redonda | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Aug 2021 | Volta Redonda | Vilafranquense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | V. Redonda U20 | Volta Redonda | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.