William Mikelbrencis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates William Mikelbrencis's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-5.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-5.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-7.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.46x the positional average in the league (1372 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.1M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1372 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1380
- Opponent strength
- 1530
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €7.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -53% to +124%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1372 league minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | RM | 26 | 1372 | 45% | 0 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 1530 | 1380 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | RM | 9 | 614 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 1439 | 1308 | 0.86 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniele Baselli Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €3.8M | €7.0M | rose |
| Azzedine Ounahi Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Angelo Fulgini Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Jimmy Cabot Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Rodrigo Zalazar Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Paolo Ghiglione Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €3.4M | €1.3M | fell |
| Moritz Leitner Bundesliga · 2015 | 23 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Amir Richardson Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2022 | FC Metz | Hamburg | €700k | €2.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | FC Metz B | FC Metz | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Metz U19 | FC Metz B | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Metz U17 | FC Metz U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Metz Youth | Metz U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.