
Rodrigo Zalazar
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rodrigo Zalazar's performance-implied value at EUR 5.0M-16.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.1M-33.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.4M-37.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.45x the positional average in the league (1944 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €29.9M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1944 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.97
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.58
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1533
- Opponent strength
- 1335
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.4M – €37.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output up 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -46% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | AM | 28 | 1944 | 64% | 16 | 5 | 0.97 | 0.58 | 1335 | 1533 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | AM | 19 | 1401 | 46% | 4 | 6 | 0.64 | 0.41 | 1332 | 1478 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CM | 32 | 1827 | 60% | 6 | 6 | 0.59 | 0.32 | 1375 | 1499 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | AM | 22 | 1329 | 43% | 1 | 6 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 1519 | 1354 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 10 | 681 | 2 | 1 | 1508 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 5 | 402 | 4 | 1 | 1364 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 6 | 473 | 3 | 3 | 1445 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 3 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1569 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SC Braga | 6 | 397 | 0 | 1 | 1648 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 1539 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SC Braga | 3 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1354 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 73 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Silva Liga Portugal · 2021 | 28 | €23.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Moatasem Al-Musrati Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €12.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Adem Ljajic Super Lig · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| João Mário Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €14.5M | €10.0M | fell |
| Everton Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €20.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Anton Miranchuk Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Lucas Paquetá Ligue 1 · 2021 | 24 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Andreas Skov Olsen Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Braga | Sporting | €30.0M | €30.0M |
| 14 Jul 2023 | FC Schalke 04 | Braga | €8.4M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Frankfurt | FC Schalke 04 | €1.5M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Schalke 04 | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 4 Aug 2021 | Frankfurt | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | St. Pauli | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 6 Aug 2020 | Frankfurt | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Apr 2020 | Korona Kielce | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €50k |
| 5 Jul 2019 | Frankfurt | Korona Kielce | Free / loan | €50k |
| 2 Jul 2019 | Atl. Malagueño | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Málaga U19 | Atl. Malagueño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2017 | San Félix U19 | Málaga U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2016 | Málaga U19 | San Félix U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Albacete U19 | Málaga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Albacete Balomp | Albacete U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.