Adam Wharton
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adam Wharton's performance-implied value at EUR 29.6M-56.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 55.3M-95.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 39.4M-80.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (2563 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €73.2M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 4% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2563 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1599
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 4%
- Resale range (24m)
- €39.4M – €80.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 36 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR -38% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | DM | 34 | 2563 | 75% | 1 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 1599 | 1589 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | DM | 20 | 1327 | 39% | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1557 | 1620 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CM | 16 | 1305 | 38% | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 1588 | 1562 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Crystal Palace | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1251 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Community Shield | Crystal Palace | 1 | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 5 | 332 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Blackburn Rovers | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Soler Laliga · 2018 | 21 | €30.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Joe Willock Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €38.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Kaoru Mitoma Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Frank Anguissa Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €20.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Conor Gallagher Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €50.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Eberechi Eze Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €40.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Bukayo Saka Premier League · 2021 | 20 | €65.0M | €120M | rose |
| Emile Smith Rowe Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2024 | Blackburn | Crystal Palace | €21.1M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Blackburn U21 | Blackburn | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Blackburn U18 | Blackburn U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Blackburn Acad. | Blackburn U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.