Eberechi Eze

28 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also LM) · England
Arsenal FC · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€65.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€26.3M – €78.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€43.1M – €85.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€29.0M – €57.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€35.8M – €59.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€26.3M – €78.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€43.1M – €85.3M
Projected value (24 months)€29.0M – €57.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€65.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Eberechi Eze's performance-implied value at EUR 43.1M-85.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 26.3M-78.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 29.0M-57.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.66x the positional average in the league (1900 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 29

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite98.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €50.8M vs market €65.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-34% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €65.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1900 (56% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.43
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.26
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
99 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1863
Opponent strength
1583
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€29.0M – €57.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; changed club; team strength up (+243 Elo); relative output down 45% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -41% to +5%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Arsenal FCPremier LeagueAM32181653%720.450.25158318761.30
2025/26Crystal PalacePremier LeagueAM1842%000.000.49176615891.30
2024/25Crystal PalacePremier LeagueAM34260376%880.550.47155616201.23
2023/24Crystal PalacePremier LeagueAM27206660%1140.650.59157515621.14
2022/23Crystal PalacePremier LeagueAM38264577%1040.480.46154515361.23
2021/22Crystal PalacePremier LeagueAM1360218%110.300.33150315371.17
2020/21Crystal PalacePremier LeagueLM34256375%460.350.36155514561.19

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueArsenal FC12742121642
2025/26Fa CupArsenal FC320812—
2025/26Community ShieldCrystal Palace190001800
2025/26World CupEngland23500—
2024/25Fa CupCrystal Palace544341—
2023/24Fa CupCrystal Palace215400—
2022/23Fa CupCrystal Palace11600—
2021/22Fa CupCrystal Palace429600—
2020/21Fa CupCrystal Palace19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Bernardo Silva
Premier League · 2023
29€80.0M€38.0Mfell
Fabinho
Premier League · 2019
26€50.0M€60.0Mrose
Jordan Henderson
Premier League · 2019
29€35.0M€20.0Mfell
Sergio Busquets
Laliga · 2015
27€45.0M€60.0Mrose
Toni Kroos
Laliga · 2018
28€80.0M€48.0Mfell
James Rodríguez
Laliga · 2016
25€70.0M€70.0Mflat
Luka Modrić
Laliga · 2015
30€50.0M€40.0Mfell
Thiago Alcántara
Bundesliga · 2018
27€60.0M€48.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
23 Aug 2025Crystal PalaceArsenal€69.3M€55.0M
28 Aug 2020QPRCrystal Palace€17.8M€9.0M
2 Jan 2018WycombeQPRFree / loanData unavailable
30 Aug 2017QPRWycombeFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Queens Park U23QPRUnknownData unavailable
3 Aug 2016Millwall U18Queens Park U23Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Reading Yth.Millwall U18Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2014Fulham YouthReading Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Arsenal YouthFulham YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Eberechi Eze · MoneyballAI