
Eberechi Eze
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Eberechi Eze's performance-implied value at EUR 43.1M-85.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 26.3M-78.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 29.0M-57.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.66x the positional average in the league (1900 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €50.8M vs market €65.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1900 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1863
- Opponent strength
- 1583
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €29.0M – €57.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; changed club; team strength up (+243 Elo); relative output down 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -41% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | AM | 32 | 1816 | 53% | 7 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.25 | 1583 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2025/26 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | AM | 1 | 84 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1766 | 1589 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | AM | 34 | 2603 | 76% | 8 | 8 | 0.55 | 0.47 | 1556 | 1620 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | AM | 27 | 2066 | 60% | 11 | 4 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 1575 | 1562 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | AM | 38 | 2645 | 77% | 10 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.46 | 1545 | 1536 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | AM | 13 | 602 | 18% | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 1503 | 1537 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | LM | 34 | 2563 | 75% | 4 | 6 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 1555 | 1456 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 12 | 742 | 1 | 2 | 1642 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 3 | 208 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Community Shield | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | England | 2 | 35 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 5 | 443 | 4 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 4 | 296 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernardo Silva Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €80.0M | €38.0M | fell |
| Fabinho Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €50.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Jordan Henderson Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Sergio Busquets Laliga · 2015 | 27 | €45.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Toni Kroos Laliga · 2018 | 28 | €80.0M | €48.0M | fell |
| James Rodríguez Laliga · 2016 | 25 | €70.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Luka Modrić Laliga · 2015 | 30 | €50.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Thiago Alcántara Bundesliga · 2018 | 27 | €60.0M | €48.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2025 | Crystal Palace | Arsenal | €69.3M | €55.0M |
| 28 Aug 2020 | QPR | Crystal Palace | €17.8M | €9.0M |
| 2 Jan 2018 | Wycombe | QPR | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Aug 2017 | QPR | Wycombe | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Queens Park U23 | QPR | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Aug 2016 | Millwall U18 | Queens Park U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Reading Yth. | Millwall U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Fulham Youth | Reading Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Arsenal Youth | Fulham Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.