Martin Dúbravka
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martin Dúbravka's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 91.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 37.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €223k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3150 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1606
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €214k – €447k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 66 pts; changed club; team strength down (-311 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -60% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | GK | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1606 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 10 | 900 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1519 | 1653 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 23 | 1984 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1546 | 1610 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 2 | 156 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1653 | 1678 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 26 | 2340 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1590 | 1545 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 13 | 1170 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1562 | 1500 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1589 | 1476 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1551 | 1532 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Newcastle United | Premier League | GK | 12 | 1080 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1572 | 1493 | 1.15 |
| 2015/16 | Esbjerg fB | Superliga | GK | 18 | 1620 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1292 | 1224 | 0.53 |
| 2014/15 | Esbjerg fB | Superliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1362 | 1321 | 0.48 |
| 2013/14 | Esbjerg fB | Superliga | GK | 15 | 1350 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1342 | 1438 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1613 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AC Sparta Prague | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1396 |
| 2015/16 | Oddset Pokalen | Esbjerg fB | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Esbjerg fB | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1377 |
| 2014/15 | Oddset Pokalen | Esbjerg fB | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | MSK Zilina | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1396 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | Esbjerg fB | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Fernández Laliga · 2014 | 35 | €600k | €100k | fell |
| Germán Lux Laliga · 2016 | 34 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Diego López Laliga · 2017 | 36 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Jaroslav Drobny Bundesliga · 2015 | 36 | €750k | €350k | fell |
| Víctor Valdés Premier League · 2017 | 35 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Andreas Luthe Bundesliga · 2021 | 34 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Ben Foster Premier League · 2022 | 39 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Roman Gerus Premier Liga · 2015 | 35 | €400k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Burnley | Without Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 7 Aug 2025 | Newcastle | Burnley | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Man Utd | Newcastle | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Newcastle | Man Utd | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sparta Prague | Newcastle | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Newcastle | Sparta Prague | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Sparta Prague | Newcastle | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Slovan Liberec | Sparta Prague | Free / loan | €600k |
| 27 Jul 2016 | Esbjerg fB | Slovan Liberec | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jan 2014 | MSK Zilina | Esbjerg fB | €100k | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2007 | MSK Zilina U19 | MSK Zilina | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.