Obed Nkambadio
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Obed Nkambadio's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-6.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-7.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.9M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1080 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1454
- Opponent strength
- 1429
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €7.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -66% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1080 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | GK | 12 | 1080 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1429 | 1454 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etrit Berisha Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Joris Delle Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Julian Pollersbeck Bundesliga · 2018 | 24 | €2.5M | €525k | fell |
| Alaa Bellaarouch Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
| Álvaro Fernández Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Cenk Gönen Super Lig · 2013 | 25 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Jérôme Prior Ligue 1 · 2017 | 22 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Gregor Kobel Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €6.0M | €13.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Paris FC B | Paris FC | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Paris FC U17 | Paris FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Entente SSG U17 | Paris FC U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | ASJA Jugend | Entente SSG U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Epinay Jugend | ASJA Jugend | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.