Gregor Kobel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gregor Kobel's performance-implied value at EUR 15.0M-42.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 25.6M-45.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.9M-30.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €34.1M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.9M – €30.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -32% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1478 | 1656 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1484 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | GK | 27 | 2366 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1506 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | GK | 27 | 2430 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1508 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | GK | 29 | 2565 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1518 | 1643 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1545 | 1462 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | GK | 16 | 1390 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1518 | 1409 | 1.05 |
| 2018/19 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1384 | 1573 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 1606 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Switzerland | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 13 | 1170 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | 1718 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1572 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1624 |
| 2021/22 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1892 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1529 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Remiro Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Jan Oblak Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €45.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Igor Akinfeev Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €20.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Marc-André ter Stegen Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €35.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Hugo Lloris Premier League · 2016 | 30 | €24.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Mike Maignan Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €35.0M | €38.0M | flat |
| Anthony Lopes Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €20.0M | €17.5M | flat |
| David de Gea Premier League · 2017 | 27 | €40.0M | €65.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Stuttgart | Dortmund | €15.0M | €13.0M |
| 28 Jul 2020 | Hoffenheim | Stuttgart | €7.2M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Stuttgart | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hoffenheim | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Augsburg | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 3 Jan 2019 | Hoffenheim | Augsburg | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | GC Zürich U18 | Hoffenheim | €138k | €25k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Hoffenheim U19 | GC Zürich U18 | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Sept 2014 | GC Zürich U18 | Hoffenheim U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | GC Zürich U16 | GC Zürich U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | GC Zürich Jgd. | GC Zürich U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.