Juan José Cáceres
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Juan José Cáceres's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-5.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-7.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.9M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2064 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1347
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €7.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 43 pts; relative output up 76% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -40% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 24 | 2064 | 76% | 1 | 7 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 1347 | 1423 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 10 | 900 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 1343 | 1445 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 7 | 585 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Paraguay | 3 | 250 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Torunarigha Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 26 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Samuel Gigot Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Merveille Bokadi Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Kelvin Leerdam Eredivisie · 2014 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.3M | fell |
| Carl Starfelt Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €6.5M | rose |
| Maurício Antônio Liga Portugal · 2017 | 25 | €1.8M | €2.0M | flat |
| Junior Sambia Ligue 1 · 2021 | 25 | €6.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Joshua Brenet Eredivisie · 2023 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2025 | Lanús | Dynamo Moscow | €3.4M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Racing Club | Lanús | €1.9M | €1.0M |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Lanús | Racing Club | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Mar 2023 | Racing Club | Lanús | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Racing Club II | Racing Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Racing Club U20 | Racing Club II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.