Pablo Solari
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Solari's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-6.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.4M-10.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-10.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1863 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.2M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1863 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1443
- Opponent strength
- 1321
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €10.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 52 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -46% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 28 | 1863 | 69% | 8 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.34 | 1321 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 11 | 456 | 17% | 2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.36 | 1235 | 1470 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 9 | 485 | 2 | 4 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 105 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miroslav Stoch Super League 1 · 2014 | 25 | €5.5M | €4.5M | flat |
| Christian Kouamé Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €9.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Steven Berghuis Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €5.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Henry Onyekuru Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Zakaria Labyad Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €6.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Jesús Corona Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €6.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Álvaro Djaló Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €15.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Kasper Dolberg Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 27 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2025 | River Plate | Spartak Moscow | €10.0M | €7.0M |
| 18 Jul 2022 | Colo-Colo | River Plate | €4.2M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | CA Talleres | Colo-Colo | €1.1M | €600k |
| 31 Dec 2021 | Colo-Colo | CA Talleres | Free / loan | €600k |
| 20 Nov 2020 | CA Talleres | Colo-Colo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Talleres II | CA Talleres | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.